Guessing the Opportunities of the Governor of Lampung in the 2024 Election
Kupastuntas.co, Lampung English - Some political observers are of the opinion that Arinal Djunaidi in the 2024 gubernatorial election or his chances in the election for the Republic of Indonesia's House of Representatives is relatively high, this is due to the condition of voters in Lampung who can still be empowered by money politics.
Budi Kurniawan, an observer on Indonesian politics from Northern Illinois University in the United States, said that the more a region depends on nature, the more it will depend on the election results sponsored by private companies providing campaign funds.
"Depending on who sponsors the enormous campaign costs, in regional elections in areas such as Lampung, the strength of sponsorship capital from large companies is a determining factor in the outcome of the elections," said Budi Kurniawan, Friday, May 26, 2023.
According to him, the viral impact of damaged roads in Lampung on Arinal Djunaidi's performance will only affect first-time voters who are open to technology, while voters in villages will not be too affected.
"Of course Lampung's virality will affect novice voters who are close to information technology, such as the Bandar Lampung City area, because Arinal has never won in Bandar Lampung City, instead those who are Arinal's base are in the villages," he said.
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Lampung Province, continued Budi, is more dominant and larger are voters in the village whose motivating factors for voting depend on money political networks.
"Again, who controls Lampung's economy, if for example the Arinal network does not change like the previous Pilkada, then it will win, if the network no longer exists, it will lose, so far capital opportunities have been very decisive in Lampung," he said.
When asked about Arinal Djunaidi's wife, who is rumored to be the Legislative Council of the Republic of Indonesia's Legislative Council, he believes that her electability remains high.
"Herman HN's wife became Mayor, Muklis Basri's relative became Regent, that's the fact that our cadre system is still primordial based, the opportunities are great not because of quality because people have large capital, yes that's why Arinal's wife wants to run for members of the People's Representative Council," he said.
In line with this, a Political Observer at the University of Lampung, Syarif Makhya, said that the influence of money politics will affect who wins the local elections.
"In the gubernatorial election, there are quite strong competitors for Arinal, including Herman HN, Umar Ahmad, Alzier Dianis Thabrani, they have experience, have networks, and support from the public is quite broad, it's just now how the influence of money politics can be controlled," he said.
This requires political competition that is truly based on the public's assessment of leadership capacity, integrity, and partiality for the grassroots, as well as the ability to solve public problems.
"In Arinal Djunaidi's capacity as an incumbent, if in public perception during his leadership it is considered successful the chances of being re-elected are greater, on the other hand if the public judges that he has failed, then there is definitely a chance that his competitor will be elected," he said.
Separately, Chair of the Parliamentary Concerned Community Forum, Lucius Karius said, Arinal's chances of being re-elected in the 2024 gubernatorial election were still very high.
"When it comes to opportunities for Arinal, it is still possible for residents to be elected both in the 2024 gubernatorial and legislative elections. Yes, although he has been talked about a lot recently because of the viral information regarding road construction in Lampung," explained Lucius.
Currently voters in Lampung tend to quickly forget the mistakes of people or candidates, and voters tend to easily forgive a leader and therefore can be re-elected.
"Not to mention that voters are still easily deceived by money politics. Incumbents are very likely to have enough capital to buy voters' votes. What is clear is that an incumbent's poor performance will not always be the basis for voters' considerations. Other factors can easily influence voters in making their choice," he closed. (*)
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